Understand
The Consumers
- The heaviest-drinking 10% of Americans account for roughly 60% of all alcohol sold
- Underage drinkers account for 8.6% of all alcohol sold
- 42.6% of people with bipolar disorder meet lifetime criteria for alcohol use disorder, vs. 16.7% in the general population
- Among people already diagnosed with alcohol dependence, 54% have had a lifetime anxiety disorder and 34% a lifetime personality disorder
Sources: Philip J. Cook,
Paying the Tab (Princeton University Press), analysis of NIAAA-funded NESARC survey data — reported in
The Washington Post and
Smithsonian. Foster et al. 2021 (UNC/Johns Hopkins/BU, NIAAA-funded), 2016 data —
sph.unc.edu. NIAAA, "Mental Health Issues: Alcohol Use Disorder and Common Co-occurring Conditions" —
niaaa.nih.gov. NESARC comorbidity analysis —
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. The bipolar/comorbidity bullets are prevalence rates (how much more likely a diagnosed group is to have AUD), not a share of total alcohol sales.
Understand
The Damage
- ~178,000 deaths/year — nearly 500 Americans a day — more than double all opioid overdose deaths combined, including fentanyl
- $249B in economic costs (2010 data — most recent full national CDC estimate available)
- $17.5B in alcohol industry revenue from underage drinkers (2016)
- Root cause of 20.3% of all deaths, ages 20-49
Sources: CDC, alcohol-attributable deaths (2020-2022 est., most recent available) —
niaaa.nih.gov. Opioid/fentanyl overdose totals, CDC/NIDA 2023 —
nida.nih.gov. Sacks et al., "2010 National and State Costs of Excessive Alcohol Consumption," CDC/
Am J Prev Med —
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. Foster et al. 2021 (UNC/Johns Hopkins/BU, NIAAA-funded) —
sph.unc.edu. Esser et al., CDC/
JAMA Network Open, 2022 —
jamanetwork.com.
Math
Isn't that a capital loss?
- Federal alcohol excise tax revenue: $11.1B (FY2023 — distilled spirits $6.77B, beer $3.28B, wine $1.07B)
- $249B in CDC-estimated economic cost dwarfs that entire tax take, by design of the comparison
Sources: TTB (Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau), Statistical Release: Tax Collections, FY2023. Figure corroborated via Congressional Research Service, "Alcohol Excise Taxes: An Overview," R48181 (Sept. 2024) —
congress.gov.
Evidence is in the ads
Source: "Merry Christmas," InBev, agency Draft FCB Ulka (New Delhi, India), December 2008 —
adsoftheworld.com.
The Default Option Isn't Neutral
1
Ownership
Stock owners are rewarded by participating in the profit of companies.
2
A Vote of Confidence
Most publicly traded companies structure executive compensation with stock packages and additional stock options. This gives leadership a vested interest in the company's profit and growth — but it also means that buying the stock is, in effect, a vote of confidence in that leadership.
3
Index and Broad Market Funds Fund the Defense
Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — the "Big Three" — are the largest shareholder in ~88% of S&P 500 companies, holding ~22.2% of S&P 500 market value (up from 13.5% in 2008) — and cast about one-quarter of all votes at S&P 500 annual meetings, voting almost as a single bloc. These asset managers vote 98.7% of the time according to the recommendations of executive leadership.
Sources: Bebchuk & Hirst, "The Specter of the Giant Three," NBER WP 25914 —
nber.org. Pearl Meyer 2025 S&P 500 proxy analysis (equity-heavy exec pay) —
pearlmeyer.com. Big Three's 98.7% management-support rate: Morningstar, "US Proxy-Voting Trends: 2025 in Review" (Lindsey Stewart) —
morningstar.com.
Understand
The Consumer
- 11% of men and 3% of women nationally showed "some agreement" with self-identifying as "addicted to pornography" (3% and 1% respectively "strongly agreed")
- Escalation is a measured, documented pattern in large-sample research — both quantitative (more time viewing) and qualitative (progressively more "extreme" content) tolerance show up as central, connected mechanisms of problematic use
- A 2026 study of young men found that those who kept escalating toward unusual or niche content were also more likely to encounter or search for material involving minors — a real, measurable link
- That study relied on self-reported search history for illegal content — a category people are well-documented to under-report, given the obvious legal and social risk of admitting to it
Sources: Grubbs et al., "Self-reported addiction to pornography in a nationally representative sample,"
Journal of Behavioral Addictions, 2019 (N=2,075) —
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov. De Roos & Willkomm, "Crossing the Line: Factors Associated With Escalating Pornography Use,"
Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2026 (N=228) —
journals.sagepub.com. Network-analysis escalation/tolerance study,
Addictive Behaviors (N=2,300, US/UK) —
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.
Note: the 2026 study's self-reported rate of deliberate CSAM searching (under 1%) was removed from this slide as likely understated — see slide 15's victim counts and slide 16's 706,000-flagged-video count for scale drawn from records rather than self-report.
Understand
The Damage
- 23% of porn-using men under 35 reported some sexual dysfunction with a "highly significant relationship" between porn-viewing time and worsening sexual dysfunction
- It's not just the women in the videos — women report feeling pressured by partners to act like porn performers in real life.
- Nearly 1 in 3 women in relationships say they worry their partner is more interested in porn than them
- Women describe these encounters as physically and emotionally uncomfortable — something they dread, not something they want
The Pornhub Story
- ~300 women and girls have filed suit against Pornhub/MindGeek since 2020, across 25 separate lawsuits
- Two federal class actions (N.D. Alabama, C.D. California) have been certified on behalf of everyone under 18 who appeared in Pornhub-hosted content since Feb 12, 2011 — Bloomberg Law describes the potential class as reaching "potentially thousands" of victims
- Broader advocacy estimates put the true number in the tens of thousands — a claim repeated widely but one this author could not trace to a verifiable primary court document; treat as an upper-bound estimate, not a confirmed count
Sources: EAU (European Association of Urology) 2020 Congress study, N=3,267 —
urotoday.com. Women's pressure/performance claim: qualitative study,
Journal of Sex & Marital Therapy, 2024 (N=30 women, UK/Greece) —
tandfonline.com — small sample, treat as illustrative of a documented pattern, not a population-wide percentage. "1 in 3" stat: Wheatley Institute, National Couples and Pornography Survey, 2021 —
wheatley.byu.edu. Newsweek, "Pornhub Is Still a Crime Scene, Even After Its Rebrand" —
newsweek.com (opinion piece; underlying primary source for the ~300/25-lawsuits figure not independently confirmed). Bloomberg Law, "Second Pornhub Sex-Trafficking Case Certified as Class Action," Dec 2023 —
news.bloomberglaw.com. TopClassActions, on
Doe No. 1, et al. v. MG Freesites LTD, et al., N.D. Ala. Case No. 7:21-cv-00220 —
topclassactions.com.
Understand
The Math
- 706,000 videos flagged by users for depicting rape or sexual abuse of children, as of May 2020 — per internal company records, unsealed by a court filing error
- A flagged video could be reported 15-16 times without triggering a single moderator review
- Site-wide searches for "girls under18" or "14yo" each returned 100,000+ videos; "13yo" returned 155,000
- ~80 moderators worldwide covered every MindGeek site — Facebook employed 15,000
- External watchdog reporting (Internet Watch Foundation) had logged only 118 instances over nearly three years — a fraction of the internal 706,000 count
- After the investigation: total videos on the site dropped from 13.5 million to under 3 million, a ~78% purge of unverified-user uploads
The Takedown
- December 4, 2020: Nicholas Kristof's New York Times investigation, "The Children of Pornhub," exposes the site hosting rape and child sexual abuse videos — triggering public outrage and a wave of advertiser and payment-processor scrutiny
- Bill Ackman — CEO, Pershing Square Capital Management ($9.05B in net assets, year-end 2020) — personally texted the CEOs of Visa and Mastercard after reading Kristof's column, leading to the initial cutoff days later
- He then tracked that Visa/Mastercard had quietly reactivated B2B payments for ad purchases and "premium" subscriptions on MindGeek sites — by his own account, ~90% of MindGeek's revenue kept flowing through despite the public "ban"
- August 2022: Ackman posted on Twitter specifically calling out Visa's continued facilitation via MindGeek/Pornhub — directly preceding Visa suspending TrafficJunky, the ad affiliate network, days later, alongside the court ruling
The Aftermath After Report
- Why did Visa/Mastercard keep processing payments, even after the first PR hit in Dec 2020? For them, this was essentially an accounting error — a rounding error in a system that processes billions of dollars a day.
- The digital merchant processing reality: a high-risk merchant processor processes the transaction → the cardholder's issuing bank approves it → Visa/Mastercard executes the network transaction. A cut of every dollar spent is split among all three.
~3.0%
High-Risk Merchant Processor
~$13.8M of $460M (2018) — the largest cut, pricing in chargeback and legal risk
~1.85%
Card-Issuing Bank
~$8.5M of $460M — standard interchange, not elevated just because the merchant is high-risk
0.13-0.15%
Visa / Mastercard
Just $598K-$690K — their own network fee is a sliver of the total
Conventional thinking says go after the issuing banks. That's not what Ackman did.
The 3-way revenue split above is this author's own worked example, applying published industry rate ranges (high-risk merchant processing: 4-7%+; standard interchange: 1.5-3.5%; Visa/Mastercard network assessment fee: 0.13-0.15%) to MindGeek's disclosed 2018 revenue. Checked specifically for a self-dealing angle (major advertisers or Visa/MC's own products appearing within TrafficJunky) — found none; the one "major brand" lead (Wish) was a fabricated relationship Wish itself denied. Sources: Semafor, "Inside Pornhub's Finances," 2023 (2018 revenue figure) —
semafor.com. Merchant Cost Consulting, on interchange vs. assessment fees —
merchantcostconsulting.com.
"Start by doing what's necessary; then do what's possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible."
— Francis of Assisi
[ CFD tagline goes here ]
"God doesn't protect us from knives sweetheart. That's why God gave us other people."
Anxious People — Fredrik Backman
This Has Been a Presentation of Covert Information
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